U.S. Political Advertising Spending Projected to Reach Record $11.6 Billion in 2025–2026 Election Cycle: Political advertising spending in the United States is on track to reach a record $11.6 billion during the 2025–2026 election cycle, according to an updated projection from advertising intelligence and analytics firm AdImpact.
The revised forecast represents a significant increase from AdImpact’s earlier estimate of $10.8 billion and would make the current election cycle the most expensive in U.S. history for political advertising. The projected total surpasses the approximately $11.2 billion spent during the 2023–2024 cycle.
The surge underscores the growing importance of political advertising as campaigns, political parties, political action committees and outside organizations compete for voters ahead of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections.
2026 Set to Break the Midterm Advertising Record
AdImpact’s updated projection places political advertising spending well above the previous midterm record.
The 2022 midterm election cycle generated approximately $8.9 billion in political advertising, while the 2024 presidential cycle reached about $11.2 billion. At $11.6 billion, the 2025–2026 cycle would exceed both figures.
AdImpact had initially projected $10.8 billion for the cycle in September 2025. The company subsequently increased its forecast by approximately $800 million, reflecting stronger-than-expected advertising activity across several major races and political contests.
Gubernatorial Races Drive a Major Increase
One of the biggest changes in the updated forecast is spending on gubernatorial elections.
AdImpact increased its projected spending for gubernatorial races by 25%, from $1.9 billion to $2.4 billion.
The California governor’s race is projected to become the most expensive gubernatorial contest in U.S. history, with approximately $351 million in political advertising expected.
Georgia’s gubernatorial contest is also projected to attract substantial advertising, with spending estimated at approximately $197 million.
The figures highlight how state-level contests are becoming increasingly important components of the overall U.S. political advertising market.
Down-Ballot Spending Also Reaches Record Levels
The growth is not limited to high-profile Senate and gubernatorial contests.
AdImpact projects that combined spending on down-ballot and state legislative races will reach approximately $3.7 billion during the cycle.
That would exceed the previous high of approximately $3.2 billion in 2022.
Within that total, down-ballot races alone are projected to account for approximately $3 billion, representing the highest single-cycle total recorded by AdImpact.
State legislative advertising is also expected to reach approximately $698 million, an increase of about 17% compared with 2024.
Why Political Advertising Is Becoming More Expensive
The expanding advertising market reflects a combination of factors, including competitive congressional contests, expensive gubernatorial races and increasingly sophisticated political campaigns across television, streaming and digital platforms.
Political advertisers are also increasingly using connected television (CTV), streaming video and other digital platforms alongside traditional broadcast and cable television.
AdImpact’s earlier projections identified the growth of streaming advertising as one of the factors contributing to the unprecedented scale of political advertising spending.
California Emerges as a Major Advertising Battleground
California is expected to be one of the largest individual political advertising markets of the 2026 cycle.
With a projected $351 million in spending for the governor’s contest, the race is on course to establish a new record for a gubernatorial election.
The scale of spending reflects the political importance of the state and the competitiveness expected around the race.
Senate and House Races Add to the Spending Surge
Competitive congressional races are another major component of the record-setting advertising environment.
Senate contests in particular are attracting significant spending as both parties seek to influence the balance of power in Washington.
Individual races have already reached extraordinary spending levels. For example, the Michigan Senate primary generated approximately $98.2 million in advertising spending and reservations, making it the third-most expensive Senate primary on record and the second-most expensive Senate primary of the 2025–2026 cycle at the time of AdImpact’s analysis.
The scale of spending demonstrates how individual Senate contests can now become multimillion-dollar advertising markets in their own right.
A Record-Breaking Political Media Market
The $11.6 billion projection is significant not only for political campaigns but also for the wider U.S. media industry.
Television broadcasters, cable networks, streaming platforms, digital publishers and other media companies stand to benefit from the enormous demand for political advertising.
For campaigns, meanwhile, the increasingly crowded media environment means that simply spending more money may not guarantee electoral success. Campaigns must compete for voters’ attention across television, social media, streaming services, websites and mobile platforms.
What the $11.6 Billion Projection Means
AdImpact’s latest projection illustrates the extraordinary financial scale of modern U.S. elections.
Key figures include:
| Category | AdImpact Projection |
|---|---|
| Total 2025–2026 political advertising | $11.6 billion |
| Previous AdImpact forecast | $10.8 billion |
| 2023–2024 cycle | $11.2 billion |
| 2022 midterm cycle | $8.9 billion |
| Gubernatorial advertising | $2.4 billion |
| Previous gubernatorial projection | $1.9 billion |
| Down-ballot advertising | $3 billion |
| Down-ballot + state legislative | $3.7 billion |
| State legislative advertising | $698 million |
| Projected California gubernatorial advertising | $351 million |
| Projected Georgia gubernatorial advertising | $197 million |
Political Advertising Enters a New Era
The updated AdImpact projection suggests that U.S. elections are entering an era in which political advertising is no longer concentrated primarily around presidential campaigns.
Gubernatorial, Senate, House, state legislative and local contests are collectively generating billions of dollars in advertising demand.
With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, campaigns and political organizations are expected to continue competing aggressively for voters across traditional television and increasingly important digital and streaming platforms.
If the forecast holds, the 2025–2026 election cycle will set a new record for U.S. political advertising spending at $11.6 billion, surpassing the record established just two years earlier.
Source: AdImpact’s Updated Political Projections Report 2025–2026, published June 11, 2026. For the full report and additional political advertising analysis, visit AdImpact.
